Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022–2030: a needs-based modelling study
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| Publicado en: | BMJ Global Health vol. 7, no. Suppl 1 (Oct 2024), p. e015972 |
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| Outros autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Acceso en liña: | Citation/Abstract Full Text + Graphics Full Text - PDF |
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| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015972 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a 3119388085 | ||
| 045 | 2 | |b d20241001 |b d20241031 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Asamani, James Avoka |u Health Workforce Unit, Universal Health Coverage Life - Course Cluster, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo; Centre for Health Professions Education, North-West University - Potchefstroom, Potchefstroom, South Africa | |
| 245 | 1 | |a Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022–2030: a needs-based modelling study | |
| 260 | |b BMJ Publishing Group LTD |c Oct 2024 | ||
| 513 | |a Journal Article | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a IntroductionAn adequate health workforce (HWF) is essential to achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including universal health coverage. However, weak HWF planning and constrained fiscal space for health, among other factors in the WHO Africa Region, has consistently resulted in underinvestment in HWF development, shortages of the HWF at the frontlines of service delivery and unemployment of qualified and trained health workers. This is further compounded by the ever-evolving disease burden and reduced access to essential health services along the continuum of health promotion, disease prevention, diagnostics, curative care, rehabilitation and palliative care.MethodsA stock and flow model based on HWF stock in 2022, age structure, graduation and migration was conducted to project the available stock by 2030. To estimate the gap between the projected stock and the need, a population needs-based modelling was conducted to forecast the HWF needs by 2030. These estimations were conducted for all 47 countries in the WHO African Region. Combining the stock projection and needs-based estimation, the modelling framework included the stock of health workers, the population’s need for health services, the need for health workers and gap analysis expressed as a needs-based shortage of health workers.ResultsThe needs-based requirement for health workers in Africa was estimated to be 9.75 million in 2022, with an expected 21% increase to 11.8 million by 2030. The available health workers in 2022 covered 43% of the needs-based requirements and are anticipated to improve to 49% by 2030 if the current trajectory of training and education outputs is maintained. An increase of at least 40% in the stock of health workers between 2022 and 2030 is anticipated, but this increase would still leave a needs-based shortage of 6.1 million workers by 2030. Considering only the SDG 3.c.1 tracer occupations (medical doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists and dentists), the projected needs-based shortage is 5.3 million by 2030. In sensitivity analysis, the needs-based shortage is most amenable to the prevalence of diseases/risk factors and professional standards for service deliveryConclusionsThe WHO African Region would need to more than double its 2022 HWF stock if the growing population’s health needs are to be adequately addressed. The present analysis offers new prospects to better plan HWF efforts considering country-specific HWF structure, and the burden of disease. | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Africa | |
| 653 | |a Health promotion | ||
| 653 | |a Population | ||
| 653 | |a Workers | ||
| 653 | |a Quality standards | ||
| 653 | |a Professional standards | ||
| 653 | |a Investments | ||
| 653 | |a Infrastructure | ||
| 653 | |a Medical personnel | ||
| 653 | |a Disease | ||
| 653 | |a Interdisciplinary aspects | ||
| 653 | |a Risk factors | ||
| 653 | |a Midwifery education | ||
| 653 | |a Workforce | ||
| 653 | |a Dentistry | ||
| 653 | |a Sustainable development | ||
| 653 | |a Pharmacists | ||
| 653 | |a Dentists | ||
| 653 | |a Health services | ||
| 653 | |a Nurses | ||
| 653 | |a Labor market | ||
| 653 | |a Sensitivity analysis | ||
| 653 | |a Social | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Kouadjo San Boris Bediakon |u Health Workforce Unit, Universal Health Coverage Life - Course Cluster, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Boniol, Mathieu |u Health Workforce, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Joseph Kyalo Munga’tu |u Acurial Science Department, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Akugri, Francis Abande |u School of Nursing and Midwifery, University of Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Learnmore, Lisa Muvango |u Internal Medicine, United Bulawayo Hospitals, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Esther Diana Zziwa Bayiga |u School of Public Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Christmal Dela Christmals |u Centre for Health Professions Education, North-West University - Potchefstroom, Potchefstroom, South Africa | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Okoroafor, Sunny |u Health Workforce Unit, Universal Health Coverage Life - Course Cluster, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Titus, Maritza |u Health Workforce Unit, Universal Health Coverage Life - Course Cluster, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Titi-Ofei, Regina |u Health Finance Department, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS Tuberculosis and Malaria, Grand-Saconnex, Switzerland | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Benard Gotora |u Health Service Commission, Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Nkala, Bernard |u Health Service Commission, Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Twum-Barimah, Adwoa Twumwaah |u Ghana Country Office, World Health Organization, Accra, Ghana | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Moussound, Jean Bernard |u Health Workforce Unit, Universal Health Coverage Life - Course Cluster, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Richmond Sowah |u Human Resource Development Division, Ghana Health Service, Accra, Ghana | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kipruto, Hillary |u Health Information Systems, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kidane, Solyana Ngusbrhan |u Data Analytics and Knowledge Management, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Benson Droti |u Health Information Systems, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bisorborwa, Geoffrey |u Child and Adolescent Health, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ahmat, Adam |u Health Workforce Unit, Universal Health Coverage Life - Course Cluster, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chukwujekwu, Ogochukwu |u Health Financing and Investment Unit, Universal Health Coverage - Life Course, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cabore, Joseph Waogodo |u World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mwinga, Kasonde |u Universal Health Coverage - Life Course, World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo | |
| 773 | 0 | |t BMJ Global Health |g vol. 7, no. Suppl 1 (Oct 2024), p. e015972 | |
| 786 | 0 | |d ProQuest |t Health & Medical Collection | |
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