A Classification Model for Early Estimation and Validation of US Government R&D Program Costs
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| Publicado en: | ProQuest Dissertations and Theses (2025) |
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| Acceso en línea: | Citation/Abstract Full Text - PDF |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Lape, Matthew H. | |
| 245 | 1 | |a A Classification Model for Early Estimation and Validation of US Government R&D Program Costs | |
| 260 | |b ProQuest Dissertations & Theses |c 2025 | ||
| 513 | |a Dissertation/Thesis | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a During the initial stages of planning, US government research and development programs tend to underestimate program costs, resulting in program costs 20-120% higher than estimated and inefficient use of funds. This results from subjective cognitive biases and the absence of scope changes in the estimation process. This research introduces a novel metric, Total Financial Reserve (TFR), to the field, providing sponsors, portfolio managers, and the Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive perspective on the anticipated costs associated with a program. This advancement facilitates improved planning and resource allocation, thereby minimizing the incidence of funding reallocations and program cancellations.Utilizing publicly available data from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), a comprehensive analysis of 20 years of Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) was conducted, allowing for a comparison between 133 initial baselines and their corresponding final costs. Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) was employed for the first time in the context of cost estimation for MDAP. A model was constructed utilizing a fitted Johnson SU distribution, thereby facilitating the establishment of quartiles for ten reference classes.Through cross-validation, it was demonstrated that this model accurately categorized the 50th and 75th quantiles for all the test data within 10% of the expected distribution. Furthermore, a comparison with established reserve estimation heuristics revealed a substantial improvement in accuracy. | |
| 653 | |a Engineering | ||
| 653 | |a Finance | ||
| 653 | |a Management | ||
| 653 | |a American studies | ||
| 773 | 0 | |t ProQuest Dissertations and Theses |g (2025) | |
| 786 | 0 | |d ProQuest |t Publicly Available Content Database | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |3 Citation/Abstract |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3142105768/abstract/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |3 Full Text - PDF |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3142105768/fulltextPDF/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |