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Investigating the Distribution Dynamics of the Camellia Subgenus Camellia in China and Providing Insights into Camellia Resources Management Under Future Climate Change

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Publicado en:Plants vol. 14, no. 7 (2025), p. 1137
Autor principal: Xu, Yue
Otros Autores: Bing-Qian Guan, Chen, Ran, Yi, Rong, Xiao-Long, Jiang, Kai-Qing Xie
Publicado:
MDPI AG
Materias:
Food & Drug Administration > FDA
China
Woody plants
Climate change
Forest management
Geographical distribution
Accuracy
Economic importance
Biodiversity hot spots
Biodiversity
Distribution patterns
Spatial distribution
Bioclimatology
Seasonal variations
Resource management
Mountains
Ornamental plants
Precipitation
Germplasm
Species richness
Centroids
Genetic resources
Population distribution
Algorithms
Climatic conditions
Forest resources
Conservation
Taxa
Camellia
Acceso en línea:Citation/Abstract
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Resumen:Rapid climate change has significantly impacted species distribution patterns, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of dominant tree dynamics for effective forest resource management and utilization. The Camellia subgenus Camellia, a widely distributed taxon in subtropical China, represents an ecologically and economically important group of woody plants valued for both oil production and ornamental purposes. In this study, we employed the BIOMOD2 ensemble modeling framework to investigate the spatial distribution patterns and range dynamics of the subgenus Camellia under projected climate change scenarios. Our analysis incorporated 1455 georeferenced occurrence records from 15 species, following the filtering of duplicate points, along with seven bioclimatic variables selected after highly correlated factors were eliminated. The ensemble model, which integrates six single species distribution models, demonstrated robust predictive performance, with mean true skil l statistic (TSS) and area under curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.8. Our results identified precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and temperature seasonality (Bio4) as the primary determinants influencing species distribution patterns. The center of species richness for the subgenus Camellia was located in the Nanling Mountains and eastern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The projections indicate an overall expansion of suitable habitats for the subgenus under future climate conditions, with notable scenario-dependent variations: distribution hotspots are predicted to increase by 8.86% under the SSP126 scenario but experience a 2.53% reduction under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, a westward shift in the distribution centroid is anticipated. To ensure long-term conservation of Camellia genetic resources, we recommend establishing a germplasm conservation center in the Nanling Mountains region, which represents a critical biodiversity hotspot for this taxon.
ISSN:2223-7747
DOI:10.3390/plants14071137
Fuente:Agriculture Science Database