Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
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| Argitaratua izan da: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences vol. 25, no. 6 (2025), p. 2081 |
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| Egile nagusia: | |
| Beste egile batzuk: | , , |
| Argitaratua: |
Copernicus GmbH
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| Gaiak: | |
| Sarrera elektronikoa: | Citation/Abstract Full Text Full Text - PDF |
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| 001 | 3224026932 | ||
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| 024 | 7 | |a 10.5194/nhess-25-2081-2025 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a 3224026932 | ||
| 045 | 2 | |b d20250101 |b d20251231 | |
| 084 | |a 123633 |2 nlm | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Schaffer, Laura |u Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Hamburg, Germany; Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany | |
| 245 | 1 | |a Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight | |
| 260 | |b Copernicus GmbH |c 2025 | ||
| 513 | |a Journal Article | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a Storm surges pose significant threats to coastal regions, including the German Bight, where strong winds from the northwesterly direction drive water levels to extreme heights. In this study, we present a simple, effective storm surge model for the German Bight, utilizing a multiple linear regression approach based solely on 10 m effective wind speed as the predictor variable. We train and evaluate the model using historical skew surge data from 1959 to 2022, incorporating regularization techniques to improve prediction accuracy while maintaining simplicity. The model consists of only five terms, the effective wind at various locations with different lead times within the North Sea region, and an intercept. It demonstrates high predictive skill, achieving a correlation of 0.88. This indicates that, despite its extreme simplicity, the model performs just as well as more complex models. The storm surge model provides robust predictions for both moderate and extreme storm surge events. Moreover, due to its simplicity, the model can be effectively used in climate simulations, making it a valuable tool for assessing future storm surge risks under changing climate conditions, independent of the ongoing and continuous sea-level rise. | |
| 651 | 4 | |a German Bight | |
| 651 | 4 | |a North Sea | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Germany | |
| 653 | |a Extreme weather | ||
| 653 | |a Strong winds | ||
| 653 | |a Tidal waves | ||
| 653 | |a Coastal zone | ||
| 653 | |a Wind speed | ||
| 653 | |a Storm surges | ||
| 653 | |a Regression analysis | ||
| 653 | |a Winds | ||
| 653 | |a Sea level | ||
| 653 | |a Water levels | ||
| 653 | |a Climate change | ||
| 653 | |a Sea level changes | ||
| 653 | |a Climatic conditions | ||
| 653 | |a Storms | ||
| 653 | |a Simulation | ||
| 653 | |a Regularization | ||
| 653 | |a Wind | ||
| 653 | |a Sea level rise | ||
| 653 | |a Regularization methods | ||
| 653 | |a Climate | ||
| 653 | |a Environmental | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Boesch, Andreas |u Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Hamburg, Germany | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Baehr, Johanna |u Institute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kruschke, Tim |u Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Hamburg, Germany | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |g vol. 25, no. 6 (2025), p. 2081 | |
| 786 | 0 | |d ProQuest |t Engineering Database | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |3 Citation/Abstract |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3224026932/abstract/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |3 Full Text |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3224026932/fulltext/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |3 Full Text - PDF |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3224026932/fulltextPDF/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |