Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Conservation Priorities of Gymnosperms With Different Leaf Shapes in China Under Climate Change

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Publicado en:Ecology and Evolution vol. 15, no. 8 (Aug 1, 2025)
Autor principal: Fu, Jinyi
Otros Autores: Song, Wenjie, Wang, Chuncheng, Jiang, Xiaolong, Shen, Xiangbao, Yi, Rong
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John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Acceso en línea:Citation/Abstract
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022 |a 2045-7758 
024 7 |a 10.1002/ece3.71980  |2 doi 
035 |a 3243793053 
045 0 |b d20250801 
084 |a 244128  |2 nlm 
100 1 |a Fu, Jinyi  |u College of Forestry, The Laboratory of Forestry Genetics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, People's Republic of China 
245 1 |a Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Conservation Priorities of Gymnosperms With Different Leaf Shapes in China Under Climate Change 
260 |b John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  |c Aug 1, 2025 
513 |a Journal Article 
520 3 |a ABSTRACT Leaf morphology is one of the important indicators for studying the response of plants to climate change. Gymnosperms play a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem stability in China. However, the geographical and altitudinal distribution patterns of gymnosperms with different leaf morphologies in China in response to climate change are not yet fully understood. This study utilized occurrence data for 71 rare gymnosperm species (including varieties) and 15 environmental variables to model the contemporary geographical distribution for the 2070s and the 2090s under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). Gymnosperm species were classified into five groups based on their leaf shapes (needle‐shaped, scale‐shaped, lanceolate‐shaped, fan‐shaped, and strip‐shaped), and the analysis revealed that the primary climatic variable driving ecological niche differences among these groups was Bio15 (precipitation seasonality). Lanceolate‐leaved gymnosperms exhibited an expansionary trend, whereas other groups generally showed range reductions under future climatic scenarios. The results indicated that approximately half of the gymnosperm species will experience notable range contractions and gradual migration to higher altitudes in northwestern regions from the present to the 2090s. Hotspots for species richness were identified in the eastern Yunnan‐Guizhou Plateau, the Nanling Mountains, and the eastern Zhejiang‐Fujian Hills. However, these hotspots showed limited overlap with existing nature reserves in China. The threat status of some species will be severely upgraded from vulnerable to critically endangered, such as Abies recurvata, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced conservation efforts. This study enhances understanding of the future distribution patterns of China's gymnosperms and provides valuable insights for developing targeted protection and conservation strategies. 
651 4 |a China 
653 |a Climate change 
653 |a Geographical distribution 
653 |a Flowers & plants 
653 |a Rare species 
653 |a Morphology 
653 |a Nature reserves 
653 |a Biodiversity 
653 |a Leaves 
653 |a Distribution patterns 
653 |a Temporal distribution 
653 |a Seasonal variations 
653 |a Forests 
653 |a Habitats 
653 |a Biodiversity hot spots 
653 |a Ecosystem stability 
653 |a Ecological niches 
653 |a Gymnosperms 
653 |a Geography 
653 |a Pine needles 
653 |a Spatial distribution 
653 |a Species richness 
653 |a Endangered & extinct species 
653 |a Population distribution 
653 |a Mountains 
653 |a Conservation 
653 |a Plant growth 
653 |a Endangered species 
653 |a Environmental 
700 1 |a Song, Wenjie  |u College of Forestry, The Laboratory of Forestry Genetics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, People's Republic of China 
700 1 |a Wang, Chuncheng  |u College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, People's Republic of China 
700 1 |a Jiang, Xiaolong  |u College of Forestry, The Laboratory of Forestry Genetics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, People's Republic of China 
700 1 |a Shen, Xiangbao  |u College of Forestry, The Laboratory of Forestry Genetics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, People's Republic of China 
700 1 |a Yi, Rong  |u College of Forestry, The Laboratory of Forestry Genetics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, People's Republic of China 
773 0 |t Ecology and Evolution  |g vol. 15, no. 8 (Aug 1, 2025) 
786 0 |d ProQuest  |t Agriculture Science Database 
856 4 1 |3 Citation/Abstract  |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3243793053/abstract/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch 
856 4 0 |3 Full Text  |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3243793053/fulltext/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch 
856 4 0 |3 Full Text - PDF  |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3243793053/fulltextPDF/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch