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Optimization of echinococcosis control measures based on system dynamics

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Publicado en:PLoS Computational Biology vol. 21, no. 9 (Sep 2025), p. e1013186-e1013203
Autor principal: Ma, Jinrui
Otros Autores: Liu, Xingyu, He, Zengwen, Zhang, Haohao, Ma, Yonghui, Fan, Ziqiu, Zhao, Xuehui, Ji Zhi, Cao, Qing, Xue, Huiwen, Gou, Huitian
Publicado:
Public Library of Science
Materias:
Gansu China
China
Infections
Software
Livestock
Animals
Mortality
Cysts
Optimization
Sheep
Disease prevention
Prevention
Feedback
Immunization
Dogs
Small intestine
Cattle
Farming
Slaughter
Education
Echinococcosis
Public health
System dynamics
Eggs
Worms
Vaccination
Domestic animals
Decision making
Disease transmission
Environmental
Acceso en línea:Citation/Abstract
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Resumen:This study aimed to provide strategies to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu Province. Based on the transmission mechanism of echinococcosis, a System Dynamics (SD) model of echinococcosis in Gansu Province was established using Vensim software. Through this model, parameters such as vaccination coverage, domestic dog deworming coverage, slaughter management level, and health education level were adjusted to predict the changing trends in the number of human cases and infected sheep. The results showed that the number of human cases was most sensitive to the adjustment of health education level, followed by changes to vaccination coverage. The number of infected sheep was most sensitive to the adjustment of vaccination coverage, followed by the adjustment of slaughter management level. Based on these simulation results, the prevention and control measures for echinococcosis in Gansu Province were further optimized. The results showed that if the health education level and the vaccination coverage were increased by 50% and 40%, respectively, based on the current prevention and control levels, the number of human cases would approach zero by approximately 2026. When the vaccination coverage and slaughter management level increased by 60% and 45%, respectively, based on current prevention and control levels, the number of infected sheep would approach zero by approximately 2027. This study applied the SD method to the prevention and control of echinococcosis for the first time, and the results can provide key decision-making recommendations to optimize the prevention and control measures of echinococcosis in Gansu province.
ISSN:1553-734X
1553-7358
DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013186
Fuente:Health & Medical Collection