Reliability Assessment of Long-Service Gravity Dams Based on Historical Water Level Monitoring Data
I tiakina i:
| I whakaputaina i: | Water vol. 17, no. 23 (2025), p. 3374-3391 |
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| Kaituhi matua: | |
| Ētahi atu kaituhi: | , , , , , |
| I whakaputaina: |
MDPI AG
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| Ngā marau: | |
| Urunga tuihono: | Citation/Abstract Full Text + Graphics Full Text - PDF |
| Ngā Tūtohu: |
Kāore He Tūtohu, Me noho koe te mea tuatahi ki te tūtohu i tēnei pūkete!
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MARC
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| 003 | UK-CbPIL | ||
| 022 | |a 2073-4441 | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.3390/w17233374 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a 3280971615 | ||
| 045 | 2 | |b d20250101 |b d20251231 | |
| 084 | |a 231641 |2 nlm | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Lu Yuzhou |u College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China; luyuzhou118@163.com (Y.L.); leo.li@mail.mcgill.ca (Z.L.); linchaoning@hhu.edu.cn (C.L.); ltchhu@163.com (T.L.) | |
| 245 | 1 | |a Reliability Assessment of Long-Service Gravity Dams Based on Historical Water Level Monitoring Data | |
| 260 | |b MDPI AG |c 2025 | ||
| 513 | |a Journal Article | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a This paper addresses the challenge of systemic extreme risk in long-service gravity dams under human-controlled operation. It is the first study to construct a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model using long-term operational monitoring data. The model, validated by multiple statistical tests and engineering boundary conditions, is then applied within a Response Surface Method-Monte Carlo (RSM-MC) reliability framework. Results indicate that the historical GEV model accurately captures the high-water-level tail characteristics and significantly overcomes the risk underestimation inherent in the uniform distribution model. Compared to the Log-Pearson Type III (Log-P3) design condition model, the GEV model yields a significantly lower probability of failure, e.g., the probability of cracking at the dam heel, the most sensitive failure mode, is reduced by nearly six times. This quantitative difference fully demonstrates GEV’s ability to precisely quantify the effective risk reduction achieved by human control, establishing a more scientific and realistic foundation for risk assessment of long-service gravity dams. | |
| 653 | |a Load | ||
| 653 | |a Dams | ||
| 653 | |a Monte Carlo simulation | ||
| 653 | |a Accuracy | ||
| 653 | |a Datasets | ||
| 653 | |a Random variables | ||
| 653 | |a Parameter identification | ||
| 653 | |a Decision making | ||
| 653 | |a Water levels | ||
| 653 | |a Hydrology | ||
| 653 | |a International organizations | ||
| 653 | |a Engineering | ||
| 653 | |a Methods | ||
| 653 | |a Probability distribution | ||
| 653 | |a Hydraulics | ||
| 653 | |a Risk assessment | ||
| 653 | |a Parameter estimation | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Qi Huijun |u College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China; luyuzhou118@163.com (Y.L.); leo.li@mail.mcgill.ca (Z.L.); linchaoning@hhu.edu.cn (C.L.); ltchhu@163.com (T.L.) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Ziwei |u College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China; luyuzhou118@163.com (Y.L.); leo.li@mail.mcgill.ca (Z.L.); linchaoning@hhu.edu.cn (C.L.); ltchhu@163.com (T.L.) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Du Xiaohu |u China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute (CREEI), No. A57, Andingmen Outer Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100120, China; duxh@creei.cn | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lin Chaoning |u College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China; luyuzhou118@163.com (Y.L.); leo.li@mail.mcgill.ca (Z.L.); linchaoning@hhu.edu.cn (C.L.); ltchhu@163.com (T.L.) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sheng Taozhen |u Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, 223 Guangzhou Road, Nanjing 210029, China; hhustz@126.com | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li Tongchun |u College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, 1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098, China; luyuzhou118@163.com (Y.L.); leo.li@mail.mcgill.ca (Z.L.); linchaoning@hhu.edu.cn (C.L.); ltchhu@163.com (T.L.) | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Water |g vol. 17, no. 23 (2025), p. 3374-3391 | |
| 786 | 0 | |d ProQuest |t Publicly Available Content Database | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |3 Citation/Abstract |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3280971615/abstract/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |3 Full Text + Graphics |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3280971615/fulltextwithgraphics/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |3 Full Text - PDF |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3280971615/fulltextPDF/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |