Kuwait Freight Transport Report - Q4 2011
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| Vydáno v: | Kuwait Freight Transport Report (Fourth Quarter 2011), p. 1 |
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| Vydáno: |
Fitch Solutions Group Limited
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| On-line přístup: | Citation/Abstract Full Text - PDF |
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| Abstrakt: | On a global level we continue to see risks to all three core shipping sectors (container and dry and liquid bulk), with overcapacity and a drop in demand continually threatening to push down rates and impinge on lines' profits. As austerity measures take hold in Europe and the US continues to have high unemployment and recover from the downturn sluggishly, shipping levels may slow their growth considerably. Kuwait's maritime freight sector is set to grow in 2011, at a faster pace than we estimate for last year. In terms of airfreight, the Middle East is a growth region for the sector and Kuwait is no exception to this. Headline Industry Data * 2011 port of Shuaiba tonnage throughput is forecast to grow +3.44% following projected growth of 1.01% in 2010. * 2011 air freight tonnage growth forecast +6.2% and to average 5.29% a year to 2015. * 2011 total trade growth forecast is +2.50%. Key Industry Trends Agility Still Under Spotlight For Alleged Defrauding Of US Government Kuwaiti logistics firm Agility denied it had been subject to a new civil case in January 2011, instead explaining that the scenario flagged up by Reuters was in fact a 'procedural amendment to the case that was announced in November 2009,' a company statement claimed. In November 2009, US prosecutors accused Agility of defrauding the US government over food contracts relating to the US military. The contracts were worth US$9.8bn. Agility insists that the matter should be treated as a civil case rather than a criminal one. KOTC Enlarges Fleet, While KPA Upgrades Machinery Kuwait Oil Tankers Company (KOTC)'s received the giant oil tanker, Dar Salwa, from South Korea's Daewoo Shipyard in November 2010. Minister of Oil and Minister of Information Sheikh Ahmad Al- Abdullah Al-Sabah declared that the fleet enlargement will include 32 oil tankers by 2014. Meanwhile, a total of nine reachstackers and 23 empty container handlers are to be delivered by mid-2011 to the Kuwait Ports Authority (KPA), for use at the ports of Shuwaikh and Shuaiba. Mubarak Al-Kabeer To Become Top Container Port Kuwait's Mubarak Al-Kabeer port, part of a wider development on the island of Bubiyan, is expected to receive nearly 1.8mn containers per year by 2015, according to Adel Al-Turki, undersecretary for the major projects department of the Ministry of Public Works. We believe that the development of Bubiyan Island into an economic free zone and port will enable Kuwait to capitalise on the huge potential rewards to be found in Iraq and Iran. Risks To Outlook There is potential upside risk to BMI's throughput forecasts as a result of Kuwait's economy, with BMI's country risk team holding the view that the 2010 spike in oil prices bodes well for BMI's positive stance on Kuwait. We forecast Kuwait's budget surplus to remain elevated in FY10/11, coming in at 14.9% of GDP. With total trade expected to grow in the real terms in the mid-term, we expect it to have a positive impact on the throughput at the country's ports. Potential downside risks to our throughput forecasts come in the form of the exposure to oil price volatility and a slowdown in global demand. Despite the broadly healthy picture of Kuwait's public finances, high reliance on oil, which accounts for 94% of total revenues, exposes the budget and, consequently, trade to oil price volatility. |
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| ISSN: | 1752-5926 2396-1783 |
| Zdroj: | ABI/INFORM Trade & Industry |