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A simple method for estimating age-specific rates from sequential cross sections

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Publicado en:Demography (pre-2011) vol. 39, no. 2 (May 2002), p. 287-310
Autor principal: Schmertmann, Carl P
Publicado:
Springer Nature B.V.
Materias:
Adolescent
Adult
Age Distribution
Birth Rate
Cross-Sectional Studies
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Demography
Epidemiology
Female
Fertility
Humans
Linear Models
Parity
Social Sciences
Studies
Mathematical models
Estimating techniques
Statistical analysis
Demographics
Population
Smoking
Computer programming
Family planning
Age
Mathematics
Methods
Censuses
Grammatical aspect
Spreadsheets
Simulation
Social research
Age differences
Estimation
Social
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Resumen:A simple formula for estimating age-specific event rates for a period from "before" and "after" cross sections is developed and demonstrated. The general approach applies to a wide range of estimation problems in demography, the social sciences, and epidemiology. The method arises from the formal mathematics of unstable populations and is similar in spirit to "variable-r" methods. Unlike those methods, however, the new technique does not require specialized computer programming or iterative calculations, and event rates can be calculated directly from cross-sectional data in simple spreadsheets. The article includes a formal mathematical exposition of the method, simulation tests, and several examples.   I develop and demonstrate a simple formula for estimating age-specific event rates for a period from "before" and "after" cross sections. The general approach applies to a wide range of estimation problems in demography, the social sciences, and epidemiology. The method arises from the formal mathematics of unstable populations and is similar in spirit to "variable-r" methods. Unlike those methods, however, the new technique does not require specialized computer programming or iterative calculations, and event rates can be calculated directly from cross-sectional data in simple spreadsheets. The article includes a formal mathematical exposition of the method, simulation tests, and several examples.
ISSN:0070-3370
1533-7790
Fuente:ABI/INFORM Global