Predicting Operating Income via a Generalized Operating-Leverage Model
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| Опубликовано в:: | International Journal of Financial Studies vol. 12, no. 1 (2024), p. 11 |
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| Главный автор: | |
| Другие авторы: | , |
| Опубликовано: |
MDPI AG
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| Предметы: | |
| Online-ссылка: | Citation/Abstract Full Text + Graphics Full Text - PDF |
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| Краткий обзор: | We propose a generalized, practitioner-oriented operating-leverage model for predicting operating income using net sales, cost of sales, depreciation, and SG&A. Prior research links operating income directly to these items; hence, our model includes all aggregate revenues and expenses that comprise operating income. Prior research finds that the cost of sales is “much less” sticky than depreciation and SG&A; hence, we use the cost of sales as a proxy for the total variable costs and depreciation and SG&A as proxies for the sticky fixed costs. We introduce a new adjustment to the textbook operating-leverage model so that the ratio of sales to the cost of sales remains constant for the reference and forecast periods. Inspired by prior research, we adjust depreciation and SG&A for cost stickiness. We find that using our generalized operating-leverage model improves the forecast accuracy of next-quarter and next-year operating income predictions compared to predictions made using textbook operating leverage, which is a special case of our model. |
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| ISSN: | 2227-7072 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/ijfs12010011 |
| Источник: | ABI/INFORM Global |