Predicting Operating Income via a Generalized Operating-Leverage Model

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Veröffentlicht in:International Journal of Financial Studies vol. 12, no. 1 (2024), p. 11
1. Verfasser: Sherwood Lane Lambert
Weitere Verfasser: Krieger, Kevin, Mauck, Nathan
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MDPI AG
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100 1 |a Sherwood Lane Lambert  |u College of Business, University of West Florida, Pensacola, FL 32514, USA; <email>llambert@uwf.edu</email> (S.L.L.); <email>kkrieger1@uwf.edu</email> (K.K.) 
245 1 |a Predicting Operating Income via a Generalized Operating-Leverage Model 
260 |b MDPI AG  |c 2024 
513 |a Journal Article 
520 3 |a We propose a generalized, practitioner-oriented operating-leverage model for predicting operating income using net sales, cost of sales, depreciation, and SG&A. Prior research links operating income directly to these items; hence, our model includes all aggregate revenues and expenses that comprise operating income. Prior research finds that the cost of sales is “much less” sticky than depreciation and SG&A; hence, we use the cost of sales as a proxy for the total variable costs and depreciation and SG&A as proxies for the sticky fixed costs. We introduce a new adjustment to the textbook operating-leverage model so that the ratio of sales to the cost of sales remains constant for the reference and forecast periods. Inspired by prior research, we adjust depreciation and SG&A for cost stickiness. We find that using our generalized operating-leverage model improves the forecast accuracy of next-quarter and next-year operating income predictions compared to predictions made using textbook operating leverage, which is a special case of our model. 
653 |a GAAP 
653 |a Financial statements 
653 |a Administrative expenses 
653 |a Textbooks 
653 |a Sales 
653 |a Costs 
653 |a Operating leverage 
653 |a Income taxes 
653 |a Profits 
653 |a Accounting 
653 |a Profitability 
653 |a Return on equity 
700 1 |a Krieger, Kevin  |u College of Business, University of West Florida, Pensacola, FL 32514, USA; <email>llambert@uwf.edu</email> (S.L.L.); <email>kkrieger1@uwf.edu</email> (K.K.) 
700 1 |a Mauck, Nathan  |u Henry W. Bloch School of Management, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas, MO 64108, USA 
773 0 |t International Journal of Financial Studies  |g vol. 12, no. 1 (2024), p. 11 
786 0 |d ProQuest  |t ABI/INFORM Global 
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