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The Extremal Value Analysis of Sea Level in the Gulf of Cádiz and Alborán Sea: A New Methodology and the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures

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Publicado en:Journal of Marine Science and Engineering vol. 13, no. 8 (2025), p. 1567-1585
Autor principal: Alonso del Rosario José J.
Otros Autores: Yin Danping, Vidal Pérez Juan M., Coronil Huertas Daniel J., Blázquez Gómez Elizabeth, Pavón Quintana Santiago, Muñoz Pérez Juan J., Torrecillas Cristina
Publicado:
MDPI AG
Materias:
Navantia
Spain
Climate change
Lower bounds
Sea level
Tidal waves
Ports
Comparative analysis
Cramer-Rao bounds
Economic activities
Infrastructure
Shipyards
Coastal zones
Lidar
Wave height
Sea level rise
Coastal environments
Sea level changes
Time series
Shipbuilding
Extreme values
Storms
Bayesian analysis
Digital Elevation Models
Wind
Resilience
Maritime industry
Value analysis
Criteria
Probability theory
Bayesian theory
Critical infrastructure
Environmental
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Resumen:Rising sea levels and increasing storm wave heights are two clear indicators of climate change affecting coastal environments worldwide. Coastal cities and infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to these hazards, highlighting the need for accurate predictions and effective adaptation and resilience strategies to protect human lives and economic activities. This study focuses on the Andalusia coast of southern Spain, from Cádiz to Almería, analyzing twelve years of sea level and wave height records using an Extreme Value Analysis. A key challenge lies in selecting the most suitable statistical distribution for long-term predictions. To address this, we propose a modified application of the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound and compare it with the Akaike Information Criteria and the Bayesian Information Criteria. Our results indicate that sea level extremes generally follow a Gumbel distribution, while wave height extremes align more closely with the Fisher–Tippett I distribution. Additionally, a high-resolution digital elevation model of the Navantia Puerto Real shipyard, generated with LiDAR scanning, was used to identify flood-prone areas and assess potential operational impacts. This approach allows for the development of practical recommendations for enhancing infrastructure resilience. The main contribution of this work includes the estimation of extreme regimes for sea level and wave stations, a novel and more efficient application of the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound, a comparative analysis with Bayesian criteria, and providing recommendations to improve the resilience of shipyard operations.
ISSN:2077-1312
DOI:10.3390/jmse13081567
Fuente:Engineering Database