The Extremal Value Analysis of Sea Level in the Gulf of Cádiz and Alborán Sea: A New Methodology and the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering vol. 13, no. 8 (2025), p. 1567-1585 |
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| 024 | 7 | |a 10.3390/jmse13081567 |2 doi | |
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| 045 | 2 | |b d20250101 |b d20251231 | |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Alonso del Rosario José J. |u Department of Applied Physics, CASEM, University of Cádiz, República Saharaui. Av. s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; juanjose.munoz@uca.es | |
| 245 | 1 | |a The Extremal Value Analysis of Sea Level in the Gulf of Cádiz and Alborán Sea: A New Methodology and the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures | |
| 260 | |b MDPI AG |c 2025 | ||
| 513 | |a Journal Article | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a Rising sea levels and increasing storm wave heights are two clear indicators of climate change affecting coastal environments worldwide. Coastal cities and infrastructure are particularly vulnerable to these hazards, highlighting the need for accurate predictions and effective adaptation and resilience strategies to protect human lives and economic activities. This study focuses on the Andalusia coast of southern Spain, from Cádiz to Almería, analyzing twelve years of sea level and wave height records using an Extreme Value Analysis. A key challenge lies in selecting the most suitable statistical distribution for long-term predictions. To address this, we propose a modified application of the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound and compare it with the Akaike Information Criteria and the Bayesian Information Criteria. Our results indicate that sea level extremes generally follow a Gumbel distribution, while wave height extremes align more closely with the Fisher–Tippett I distribution. Additionally, a high-resolution digital elevation model of the Navantia Puerto Real shipyard, generated with LiDAR scanning, was used to identify flood-prone areas and assess potential operational impacts. This approach allows for the development of practical recommendations for enhancing infrastructure resilience. The main contribution of this work includes the estimation of extreme regimes for sea level and wave stations, a novel and more efficient application of the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound, a comparative analysis with Bayesian criteria, and providing recommendations to improve the resilience of shipyard operations. | |
| 610 | 4 | |a Navantia | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Spain | |
| 653 | |a Climate change | ||
| 653 | |a Lower bounds | ||
| 653 | |a Sea level | ||
| 653 | |a Tidal waves | ||
| 653 | |a Ports | ||
| 653 | |a Comparative analysis | ||
| 653 | |a Cramer-Rao bounds | ||
| 653 | |a Economic activities | ||
| 653 | |a Infrastructure | ||
| 653 | |a Shipyards | ||
| 653 | |a Coastal zones | ||
| 653 | |a Lidar | ||
| 653 | |a Wave height | ||
| 653 | |a Sea level rise | ||
| 653 | |a Coastal environments | ||
| 653 | |a Sea level changes | ||
| 653 | |a Time series | ||
| 653 | |a Shipbuilding | ||
| 653 | |a Extreme values | ||
| 653 | |a Storms | ||
| 653 | |a Bayesian analysis | ||
| 653 | |a Digital Elevation Models | ||
| 653 | |a Wind | ||
| 653 | |a Resilience | ||
| 653 | |a Maritime industry | ||
| 653 | |a Value analysis | ||
| 653 | |a Criteria | ||
| 653 | |a Probability theory | ||
| 653 | |a Bayesian theory | ||
| 653 | |a Critical infrastructure | ||
| 653 | |a Environmental | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Yin Danping |u Department of Ship Building, School of Naval and Ocean Engineering, CASEM, University of Cádiz, República Saharaui Av. s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; danping.yin@alum.uca.es (D.Y.); juan.vidal@uca.es (J.M.V.P.); daniel.coronil@uca.es (D.J.C.H.); santiago.pavon@uca.es (S.P.Q.) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vidal Pérez Juan M. |u Department of Ship Building, School of Naval and Ocean Engineering, CASEM, University of Cádiz, República Saharaui Av. s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; danping.yin@alum.uca.es (D.Y.); juan.vidal@uca.es (J.M.V.P.); daniel.coronil@uca.es (D.J.C.H.); santiago.pavon@uca.es (S.P.Q.) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Coronil Huertas Daniel J. |u Department of Ship Building, School of Naval and Ocean Engineering, CASEM, University of Cádiz, República Saharaui Av. s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; danping.yin@alum.uca.es (D.Y.); juan.vidal@uca.es (J.M.V.P.); daniel.coronil@uca.es (D.J.C.H.); santiago.pavon@uca.es (S.P.Q.) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Blázquez Gómez Elizabeth |u Department Earth Sciences, Faculty of Marine and Environmental Sciences, CASEM, University of Cádiz, República Saharaui Av., 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; elizabeth.blazquez@uca.es | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pavón Quintana Santiago |u Department of Ship Building, School of Naval and Ocean Engineering, CASEM, University of Cádiz, República Saharaui Av. s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; danping.yin@alum.uca.es (D.Y.); juan.vidal@uca.es (J.M.V.P.); daniel.coronil@uca.es (D.J.C.H.); santiago.pavon@uca.es (S.P.Q.) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Muñoz Pérez Juan J. |u Department of Applied Physics, CASEM, University of Cádiz, República Saharaui. Av. s/n, 11510 Puerto Real, Cádiz, Spain; juanjose.munoz@uca.es | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Torrecillas Cristina |u Departmento de Ingeniería Gráfica, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería, Universidad de Sevilla, Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n, Isla de la Cartuja, 41092 Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain; torrecillas@us.es | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |g vol. 13, no. 8 (2025), p. 1567-1585 | |
| 786 | 0 | |d ProQuest |t Engineering Database | |
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