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Spillover of Water Scarcity Risk through Virtual Water Trade in Rapidly Urbanizing Drylands

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Publicado en:International Journal of Disaster Risk Science vol. 16, no. 4 (Aug 2025), p. 618
Autor principal: Li, Penghui
Otros Autores: He, Chunyang, Huang, Qingxu, Wang, Yida, Zhao, Yixuan
Publicado:
Springer Nature B.V.
Materias:
China
Sustainable development
Agricultural industry
Water supply
Water stress
Agglomeration
Arid zones
Water shortages
Spillover effect
Path analysis
Agriculture
International trade
Scarcity
Risk
Regions
Economic impact
Urban areas
Arid lands
Regional development
Construction industry
Trade
Water resources
Water scarcity
Consumption
Supply chains
Arid regions
Semiarid zones
Semi arid areas
Urbanization
Risk assessment
Agricultural development
Management development programmes
Side effects
Economic
Environmental
Acceso en línea:Citation/Abstract
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Resumen:Virtual water trade plays a pivotal role in alleviating water scarcity in rapidly urbanizing drylands, and accurately assessing the spillover of local water scarcity pressure to other regions through such trade is essential for sustainable development in these areas. However, systematic research on the spillover of water scarcity risks through virtual water trade and its transmission pathways in arid and semi-arid regions remains relatively limited. Taking the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin (HBOY) urban agglomeration as an example, this study integrated the multi-regional input-output model and structural path analysis to assess the spillover of water scarcity risk through virtual water trade and trace key transmission paths. We found that over 90% of HBOY’s water scarcity risk was transferred to regions experiencing severe or extreme water stress. Spatially, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were the primary recipients, absorbing 37.2% and 14.5% of HBOY’s total spillover of water scarcity risk, respectively. Sectorally, 62.0% of the risk spillover originated from HBOY’s agriculture, light industry, and construction sectors and was passed to the agricultural sector in external regions. The most important risk transmission path was from HBOY’s agriculture to Inner Mongolia’s agriculture, accounting for 18.3% of HBOY’s total risk spillover. Additionally, potential loss due to insufficient external virtual water supply constituted nearly one-third of HBOY’s total economic loss from water scarcity. We recommend that rapidly urbanizing drylands and their trade partners should actively develop a cross-regional collaborative management system to mitigate the adverse effects of risk spillover.
ISSN:2095-0055
2192-6395
DOI:10.1007/s13753-025-00656-z
Fuente:Military Database