Spillover of Water Scarcity Risk through Virtual Water Trade in Rapidly Urbanizing Drylands

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Yayımlandı:International Journal of Disaster Risk Science vol. 16, no. 4 (Aug 2025), p. 618
Yazar: Li, Penghui
Diğer Yazarlar: He, Chunyang, Huang, Qingxu, Wang, Yida, Zhao, Yixuan
Baskı/Yayın Bilgisi:
Springer Nature B.V.
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Online Erişim:Citation/Abstract
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035 |a 3250021416 
045 2 |b d20250801  |b d20250831 
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100 1 |a Li, Penghui  |u Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.419897.a) (ISNI:0000 0004 0369 313X); Beijing Normal University, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964) 
245 1 |a Spillover of Water Scarcity Risk through Virtual Water Trade in Rapidly Urbanizing Drylands 
260 |b Springer Nature B.V.  |c Aug 2025 
513 |a Journal Article 
520 3 |a Virtual water trade plays a pivotal role in alleviating water scarcity in rapidly urbanizing drylands, and accurately assessing the spillover of local water scarcity pressure to other regions through such trade is essential for sustainable development in these areas. However, systematic research on the spillover of water scarcity risks through virtual water trade and its transmission pathways in arid and semi-arid regions remains relatively limited. Taking the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin (HBOY) urban agglomeration as an example, this study integrated the multi-regional input-output model and structural path analysis to assess the spillover of water scarcity risk through virtual water trade and trace key transmission paths. We found that over 90% of HBOY’s water scarcity risk was transferred to regions experiencing severe or extreme water stress. Spatially, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were the primary recipients, absorbing 37.2% and 14.5% of HBOY’s total spillover of water scarcity risk, respectively. Sectorally, 62.0% of the risk spillover originated from HBOY’s agriculture, light industry, and construction sectors and was passed to the agricultural sector in external regions. The most important risk transmission path was from HBOY’s agriculture to Inner Mongolia’s agriculture, accounting for 18.3% of HBOY’s total risk spillover. Additionally, potential loss due to insufficient external virtual water supply constituted nearly one-third of HBOY’s total economic loss from water scarcity. We recommend that rapidly urbanizing drylands and their trade partners should actively develop a cross-regional collaborative management system to mitigate the adverse effects of risk spillover. 
651 4 |a China 
653 |a Sustainable development 
653 |a Agricultural industry 
653 |a Water supply 
653 |a Water stress 
653 |a Agglomeration 
653 |a Arid zones 
653 |a Water shortages 
653 |a Spillover effect 
653 |a Path analysis 
653 |a Agriculture 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Scarcity 
653 |a Risk 
653 |a Regions 
653 |a Economic impact 
653 |a Urban areas 
653 |a Arid lands 
653 |a Regional development 
653 |a Construction industry 
653 |a Trade 
653 |a Water resources 
653 |a Water scarcity 
653 |a Consumption 
653 |a Supply chains 
653 |a Arid regions 
653 |a Semiarid zones 
653 |a Semi arid areas 
653 |a Urbanization 
653 |a Risk assessment 
653 |a Agricultural development 
653 |a Management development programmes 
653 |a Side effects 
653 |a Economic 
653 |a Environmental 
700 1 |a He, Chunyang  |u Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.419897.a) (ISNI:0000 0004 0369 313X); People’s Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964) 
700 1 |a Huang, Qingxu  |u Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Beijing Normal University, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964) 
700 1 |a Wang, Yida  |u Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.419897.a) (ISNI:0000 0004 0369 313X); Beijing Normal University, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964) 
700 1 |a Zhao, Yixuan  |u Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964); Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.419897.a) (ISNI:0000 0004 0369 313X); Beijing Normal University, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China (GRID:grid.20513.35) (ISNI:0000 0004 1789 9964) 
773 0 |t International Journal of Disaster Risk Science  |g vol. 16, no. 4 (Aug 2025), p. 618 
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