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Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions

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Publicado en:Nature Communications vol. 16, no. 1 (2025), p. 8431-8444
Autor principal: Zhao, Pengjun
Otros Autores: Li, Yunlin, Zhang, Caixia, Kang, Tingting, He, Zhangyuan, Huang, Guangyu, Zhang, Shiyi, Zhang, Xianghao, Xu, Yuanquan, Kong, Weiya
Publicado:
Nature Publishing Group
Materias:
Bering Strait
Northwest Passage
Arctic region
Suez Canal
Panama Canal
Strait of Malacca
Geopolitics
Emissions
International trade
Carbon dioxide
Carbon
Climate change
Ice environments
Shipping
Arctic zone
Emissions control
Climate policy
Environmental justice
Regional planning
Net zero
Habitat corridors
Access routes
Greenhouse gases
Economic
Acceso en línea:Citation/Abstract
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Resumen:Climate-driven Arctic ice melt is opening the Arctic Sea Route (ASR), providing shorter paths for global trade while also raising critical environmental concerns. Here, we quantify the long-term carbon consequences of ASR access using a trade-integrated shipping emissions projection (TISEP) model that integrates trade scenarios, vessel routing, and climate policy pathways. Our results indicate that ASR use will increase global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100, with Arctic emissions rising from 0.22% to 2.72%. At the same time, environmental disparities in exposure to emissions will increase since Northeast Asia, Northern Europe, and North America will experience particularly large increases in emissions due to rerouted shipping flows. We evaluate three mitigation strategies and find that two ongoing strategies, the 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships and the Green Corridor strategy, are insufficient to achieve emission targets in the Arctic, but a net-zero strategy featuring stricter fuel standards and regionally phased rollout could fully eliminate ASR-related emissions. These findings highlight the urgent need for more prospective actions to reduce shipping emissions, protect the Arctic environment, and advance global environmental justice as Arctic navigability increases.Arctic Sea Route access will raise global shipping CO2 by 8.2% by 2100 and worsen regional inequities. IMO 2023 strategy and Green Corridor plans fall short; only a net-zero pathway with stricter fuels and phased rollout eliminates ASR emissions.
ISSN:2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-64437-4
Fuente:Health & Medical Collection