Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions
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| Publicado en: | Nature Communications vol. 16, no. 1 (2025), p. 8431-8444 |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | , , , , , , , , |
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Nature Publishing Group
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| Acceso en línea: | Citation/Abstract Full Text Full Text - PDF |
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| 003 | UK-CbPIL | ||
| 022 | |a 2041-1723 | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1038/s41467-025-64437-4 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a 3255597874 | ||
| 045 | 2 | |b d20250101 |b d20251231 | |
| 084 | |a 145839 |2 nlm | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Zhao, Pengjun |u College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319); School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 245 | 1 | |a Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions | |
| 260 | |b Nature Publishing Group |c 2025 | ||
| 513 | |a Journal Article | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a Climate-driven Arctic ice melt is opening the Arctic Sea Route (ASR), providing shorter paths for global trade while also raising critical environmental concerns. Here, we quantify the long-term carbon consequences of ASR access using a trade-integrated shipping emissions projection (TISEP) model that integrates trade scenarios, vessel routing, and climate policy pathways. Our results indicate that ASR use will increase global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100, with Arctic emissions rising from 0.22% to 2.72%. At the same time, environmental disparities in exposure to emissions will increase since Northeast Asia, Northern Europe, and North America will experience particularly large increases in emissions due to rerouted shipping flows. We evaluate three mitigation strategies and find that two ongoing strategies, the 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships and the Green Corridor strategy, are insufficient to achieve emission targets in the Arctic, but a net-zero strategy featuring stricter fuel standards and regionally phased rollout could fully eliminate ASR-related emissions. These findings highlight the urgent need for more prospective actions to reduce shipping emissions, protect the Arctic environment, and advance global environmental justice as Arctic navigability increases.Arctic Sea Route access will raise global shipping CO2 by 8.2% by 2100 and worsen regional inequities. IMO 2023 strategy and Green Corridor plans fall short; only a net-zero pathway with stricter fuels and phased rollout eliminates ASR emissions. | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Bering Strait | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Northwest Passage | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Arctic region | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Suez Canal | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Panama Canal | |
| 651 | 4 | |a Strait of Malacca | |
| 653 | |a Geopolitics | ||
| 653 | |a Emissions | ||
| 653 | |a International trade | ||
| 653 | |a Carbon dioxide | ||
| 653 | |a Carbon | ||
| 653 | |a Climate change | ||
| 653 | |a Ice environments | ||
| 653 | |a Shipping | ||
| 653 | |a Arctic zone | ||
| 653 | |a Emissions control | ||
| 653 | |a Climate policy | ||
| 653 | |a Environmental justice | ||
| 653 | |a Regional planning | ||
| 653 | |a Net zero | ||
| 653 | |a Habitat corridors | ||
| 653 | |a Access routes | ||
| 653 | |a Greenhouse gases | ||
| 653 | |a Economic | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Yunlin |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhang, Caixia |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kang, Tingting |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a He, Zhangyuan |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Huang, Guangyu |u College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhang, Shiyi |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhang, Xianghao |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Xu, Yuanquan |u School of Environment and Resource, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02frt9q65) (GRID: grid.459584.1) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2196 0260) | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kong, Weiya |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) | |
| 773 | 0 | |t Nature Communications |g vol. 16, no. 1 (2025), p. 8431-8444 | |
| 786 | 0 | |d ProQuest |t Health & Medical Collection | |
| 856 | 4 | 1 | |3 Citation/Abstract |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3255597874/abstract/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |3 Full Text |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3255597874/fulltext/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |3 Full Text - PDF |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3255597874/fulltextPDF/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch |