Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions

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Publicado en:Nature Communications vol. 16, no. 1 (2025), p. 8431-8444
Autor principal: Zhao, Pengjun
Otros Autores: Li, Yunlin, Zhang, Caixia, Kang, Tingting, He, Zhangyuan, Huang, Guangyu, Zhang, Shiyi, Zhang, Xianghao, Xu, Yuanquan, Kong, Weiya
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Nature Publishing Group
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022 |a 2041-1723 
024 7 |a 10.1038/s41467-025-64437-4  |2 doi 
035 |a 3255597874 
045 2 |b d20250101  |b d20251231 
084 |a 145839  |2 nlm 
100 1 |a Zhao, Pengjun  |u College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319); School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
245 1 |a Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions 
260 |b Nature Publishing Group  |c 2025 
513 |a Journal Article 
520 3 |a Climate-driven Arctic ice melt is opening the Arctic Sea Route (ASR), providing shorter paths for global trade while also raising critical environmental concerns. Here, we quantify the long-term carbon consequences of ASR access using a trade-integrated shipping emissions projection (TISEP) model that integrates trade scenarios, vessel routing, and climate policy pathways. Our results indicate that ASR use will increase global shipping emissions by 8.2% by 2100, with Arctic emissions rising from 0.22% to 2.72%. At the same time, environmental disparities in exposure to emissions will increase since Northeast Asia, Northern Europe, and North America will experience particularly large increases in emissions due to rerouted shipping flows. We evaluate three mitigation strategies and find that two ongoing strategies, the 2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships and the Green Corridor strategy, are insufficient to achieve emission targets in the Arctic, but a net-zero strategy featuring stricter fuel standards and regionally phased rollout could fully eliminate ASR-related emissions. These findings highlight the urgent need for more prospective actions to reduce shipping emissions, protect the Arctic environment, and advance global environmental justice as Arctic navigability increases.Arctic Sea Route access will raise global shipping CO2 by 8.2% by 2100 and worsen regional inequities. IMO 2023 strategy and Green Corridor plans fall short; only a net-zero pathway with stricter fuels and phased rollout eliminates ASR emissions. 
651 4 |a Bering Strait 
651 4 |a Northwest Passage 
651 4 |a Arctic region 
651 4 |a Suez Canal 
651 4 |a Panama Canal 
651 4 |a Strait of Malacca 
653 |a Geopolitics 
653 |a Emissions 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Carbon dioxide 
653 |a Carbon 
653 |a Climate change 
653 |a Ice environments 
653 |a Shipping 
653 |a Arctic zone 
653 |a Emissions control 
653 |a Climate policy 
653 |a Environmental justice 
653 |a Regional planning 
653 |a Net zero 
653 |a Habitat corridors 
653 |a Access routes 
653 |a Greenhouse gases 
653 |a Economic 
700 1 |a Li, Yunlin  |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
700 1 |a Zhang, Caixia  |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
700 1 |a Kang, Tingting  |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
700 1 |a He, Zhangyuan  |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
700 1 |a Huang, Guangyu  |u College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
700 1 |a Zhang, Shiyi  |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
700 1 |a Zhang, Xianghao  |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
700 1 |a Xu, Yuanquan  |u School of Environment and Resource, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02frt9q65) (GRID: grid.459584.1) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2196 0260) 
700 1 |a Kong, Weiya  |u School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, China (ROR: https://ror.org/02v51f717) (GRID: grid.11135.37) (ISNI: 0000 0001 2256 9319) 
773 0 |t Nature Communications  |g vol. 16, no. 1 (2025), p. 8431-8444 
786 0 |d ProQuest  |t Health & Medical Collection 
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856 4 0 |3 Full Text - PDF  |u https://www.proquest.com/docview/3255597874/fulltextPDF/embedded/7BTGNMKEMPT1V9Z2?source=fedsrch